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witness代寫:系統建模-Why and Ho

瀏覽: 日期:2020-01-12

Essaymint:专注软文代写和代写作业等服务,作业代写-100%原创高分   witness代寫

Essaymint:专注软文代写和代写作业等服务,作业代写-100%原创高分   第1章:系統建模-Why and How?

Essaymint:专注软文代写和代写作业等服务,作业代写-100%原创高分   也許你認為科學是關于“解釋,揭示自然的基本機制”(Waldrop,1992,第39頁),但是建模比科學抽象要深入得多。相反,這是一項對任何通過適應來學習生存的生物體至關重要的技能。我們人類建立的大多數模型都在我們的頭腦中(即心理模型),它們和本書主題的模型一樣多。它們只是沒有特別明確,除非我們恰好清楚地表達它們,并且構建模擬模型只是這種表達的一個例子。模型是在他們的建設者的頭腦中構想出來的,在紙上和計算機上誕生并明確表示出來,當我們為了更好的東西而丟棄它們時,模型就會失效。

  這樣的建模是有用的,因為我們的大腦可以同時處理的東西有一個非常小和有限的限制。通過形式化我們的心理模型并建立它們的顯式模型,我們可以考慮我們正在研究的系統中更多的各種實體,以及它們之間更多的交互作用,即我們在范圍和細節上都獲得了。此外,為了生存,我們可以用這些模型做更多的事情,而不僅僅是預測;我們也可以開始描述和(最困難的)解釋。事實上,描述、預測和解釋有三個(相關的)目的,可以使用模型(Flood和Carson,1993)。描述是最直接的;基于觀察,我們簡單地構建了反映現實的模型。預測涉及更多,即使用此類模型預測未來行為,接受(通常是含蓄的,通常是危險的)過去的行為是一個良好指南的直覺(Casti,1994年)。然而,解釋超越了兩者,這確實是科學的本質。當然,給定的模型是否需要“解釋性的……而不僅僅是預測性的”(Rivet,1972,pp 2-4),取決于它所支持的工作的目的。

  更重要的是,也許不是目的,但是,顯式模型可以方便地分為兩大類,即物理模型和抽象模型。前者可進一步劃分為標志性模型或比例模型(如風洞中的模型飛機)和模擬模型(具有不同特性的模型);后者可分為分析模型(包括公式和方程相關變量)和數值模型(基于規則)。最后,模型可以是靜態的或動態的(取決于它們是否隨時間變化),然后是隨機的(具有隨機性或概率)或確定性的(沒有)。這導致了動態建模的兩個廣泛領域:離散仿真和系統動力學。這兩類構成了我們的主體。

  本介紹性章節應使您能夠:

  了解建模系統背后的動機-理念及其背景

Essaymint:专注软文代写和代写作业等服务,作业代写-100%原创高分   使用豐富的圖片、認知地圖和影響圖處理復雜性

  開始思考觀點、范圍和詳細程度

  在特定情況下,在離散仿真和系統動力學之間進行選擇。

  1.1 THE SYSTEMS APPROACH AND HOLISM

  At the core of building good models in operations management and the management sciences is the systems approach. This has a critical role because of three fundamental features.

Essaymint:专注软文代写和代写作业等服务,作业代写-100%原创高分   1. It recognises systems as wholes - unlike the reductionist approach, which presumes that understanding is best obtained by breaking the wholes down into their constituent parts. Ackoff (1993) commented that “it can be proven rigorously that when each part of an organisation improves its performance independently of other parts with which it interacts, the performance of the whole may well suffer. This follows from the fact that the performance of a system is not the sum of the performances of the parts taken separately, but is the product of their interactions”.

  2. It considers organisations as open systems in constant interaction with their environment.

Essaymint:专注软文代写和代写作业等服务,作业代写-100%原创高分   3. It is naturally comprehensible because human beings organise their knowledge into cognitive systems spontaneously (Jackson, 1991).In any model building, though, it is necessarily impossible to include all the elements of a given situation: there are too many and the interactions between them are too complex. The trick is thus to recognise the elements and their interactions not completely but adequately: this is often far from straightforward to achieve. Particularly in the early stages of modelling (Clarke and Tobias, 1995a; 1995b) we need ways of dealing with complexity (Flood and Carson, 1993) and to recognize why we are doing it. As illustrated in Figure 1.1 we will be hoping that, through informed discourse and debate, our modelling - and more generally, problem structuring and analysis – will result in rational decision making and interventions, and hence outcomes that are “desired” and somehow make the world a “better” place.

  1.2 DESCRIPTION, METAPHOR AND ANALOGY

  The approach in much management research is just to describe. Situation descriptions are framed in long and complicated textual terms, and are intended to provide a complete coverage of every possible feature of the situations without quantifying many (if any) of the properties involved. Indeed some organisational models “do little more than describe or depict” (Burke and Litwin, 1992). The trouble is that assessments of particular real situations against such models tend to be at best debatable and at worst arbitrary.

  More succinct than descriptions are metaphors, and these differ from analogies and from similes. Analogies reflect “correspondences between things in certain respects that are otherwise different” (Chambers Etymological English Dictionary) - e.g. “Money is like muck, not good unless it be spread” (Fowler’s Modern English Usage). Unlike similes (which are comparisons proclaimed plainly as such), metaphors are, in conversation at least, mere figures of speech based on comparisons that are tacit - e.g. “He is a tiger when roused” (Chambers).

  In management though, metaphors tend to assume the role of models and the use of metaphorical analysis in discussing organisational change has long been widespread (Grant and Oswick,1996; Palmer and Dunford, 1996). The "organisation as machine" metaphor can actually be traced back to Taylor (1911) but more recent studies tend to rely upon studies of biological systems for insights into the management of organisations (e.g. Waldrop, 1992). Indeed it has become popular, when attempting to understand almost anything in management, to refer to the animal kingdom (e.g. Collinvaux, 1978).


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